(Reuters) - One day after announcing that income inequality increased in Brazil last year, the Brazilian statistics institute IBGE said on Friday it had miscalculated and issued a new number reversing the trend.
The correction is good news for President Dilma Rousseff, who is campaigning for re-election next month on her leftist government's record of improving social conditions in Brazil, but it left others wondering what was behind the revision.
The IBGE's annual households study released on Thursday said the Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, rose from 0.496 in 2012 to 0.498 in 2013, where zero is maximum equality and 1 is total income concentration.
The IBGE corrected the number to 0.495, saying it had made a methodological error. The agency denied the government had a hand in the change.
"There was no political pressure. It'd be surrealistic if we announced statistics and then changed them under pressure," IBGE research director Roberto Olinto said at a news conference.
But Rousseff's opponents, who are seeking to end 12 years of rule by the Workers' Party, were not convinced.
Centrist candidate Aecio Neves said the government was so anxious to stay in power that it was putting pressure on the statisticians to deliver positive data.
"The government is undermining the credibility of our most serious and respected institutions," he said in a statement.
The original data showing inequality rising made newspaper headlines and was an embarrassment for Rousseff, whose re-election is threatened by popular environmentalist Marina Silva in a race that is too close to call.
The Planning Ministry announced the creation of a commission of independent experts to look into what happened.
Expanding nursery provision, improving educational standards and providing more vocational training to adults will be at the heart of Brazil’s efforts to fight poverty and inequality over the next few years, according to the country’s social development minister.
While she trumpeted the successes of the bolsa familia poverty-relief programme – the cash handout given to almost a quarter of Brazilian families on condition that their children go to school and get vaccinated – Tereza Campello insisted that the country still had a long way to go in creating a fairer and more prosperous society.
Introduced in 2003 by the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the bolsa familia is estimated to have kept 36m families out of extreme poverty and to have been responsible for a dramatic drop in infant mortality, with 0-5 deaths from diarrhoea falling by 46% and deaths from malnutrition down by 58%.
But, said Campello, the programme was not solely responsible for the country’s socio-economic progress: between 2002 and 2013, the poorest 20% of Brazilians saw their incomes rise by 6.2%, while those in the top 20% saw a rise of only 2.6%.
“Everybody thinks it’s because of bolsa familia, but that’s not the case,” said Campello. “Bolsa familia is a small contributor to that, but we’ve also had a 72% growth in the minimum wage – above the rate of inflation – and an increase in employment of 20.8m formal jobs.”
The minister, whose Workers party (PT) squeaked to victory in October’s elections, stressed that education would remain the primary focus of President Dilma Rousseff’s anti-poverty strategies.
“Our poor children don’t have sufficient access to pre-school education,” she said. “We want to ensure that by 2016, all children from 4-6 go to school, and we are starting to expand nursery provision for 0-3 year olds. It’s particularly important in Brazil because when a child is in school, they are being stimulated and getting free school meals. It also allows the mother or the father to go to work. If you’re a really poor family with small children, it’s very limiting and one of the parents has to lose out.”
Of equal importance, said Campello, was raising educational standards by improving teacher training, building libraries and laboratories – and by ensuring that children spend a full day in school.
“We’ve made great efforts to have a full and integral school day,” she said. “Getting poorer children to stay at school all day is vital: not only do they get free meals; it also means they can be kept away from violence and criminality. We need to expand school provision, but we have a physical limitation as there are 260,000 schools in Brazil - we’re not talking about a small country.”
Campello, who was in London to give a talk on Brazil’s efforts to tackle extreme poverty, said the social and economic inclusion of adults was also “absolutely vital”.
Despite an unemployment rate of 4.9%, she added, the country had a serious shortage of skilled workers in the tourism and hospitality industries. “One of the main things is expanding adult opportunities in vocational qualifications,” she said. “A significant proportion of the population already works in those sectors, but we need to improve their skills. Training the poorest people would be an opportunity for both them and for Brazil as a whole.”
Campello rejected suggestions that the close election result reflected a lack of confidence in her party and its efforts to reduce inequality.
“We’re not taking it easy or saying that everything has been done: we still have a lot of work ahead of us,” she said. “Brazil was one of the most unequal countries in the world and you can’t end 500 years of exclusion in 12 years. We’ve made far more progress than at any other point in our history – but we still have a lot to do.”
The number of Brazilians living in extreme poverty grew from 10.08 million in 2012 to 10.45 million in 2013, the first increase after 10 consecutive years of reductions, the government said Wednesday.
Even with the uptick in 2013, the total number of indigent people is less than half what it was in 2003.
Total population in Brazil climbed from 198.66 million in 2012 to 201.93 million in 2013, a 1.2 percent increase.
The 3.7 percent increase in the number of destitute people was reported by the official Institute of Applied Economic Research, known by the Portuguese initials IPEA, drawing on data from an ambitious household survey.
The data was posted on the IPEA Web site without comment after the agency received criticism for not releasing the figures earlier, as scheduled, before the Oct. 26 runoff vote that gave President Dilma Rousseff a second term.
IPEA defines extreme poverty as a per capita income below the level necessary to buy enough food to meet the recommended minimum caloric intake for one person.
The number of Brazilians in that category had been decreasing since 2003, when Luis Inacio Lula da Silva began the first of his two four-year presidential terms with the launch of an anti-poverty program that currently assists some 50 million families.
The program, considered a model around the world in the fight against poverty, cut the number of extremely poor people in Brazil from 36.24 million in Lula's first year in office to 13.6 million at the end of his tenure.
Under Rousseff, Lula's successor and political protege, the number continued decreasing, from 11.77 million in 2011 to 10.08 million in 2012, before edging up last year.
The number of people described as poor - an income sufficient to feed two people - decreased 5.4 percent from 30.35 million in 2012 to 28.69 million last year.
Since 2003, when there were 61.81 million poor people in Brazil, the number has fallen 53 percent. EFE